Tony Farmer8/9/2026
It’s only August, but it’s never too early to start wrapping our heads around Week 1 of the NFL season with Circa Survivor glasses on.
Last season’s Week 1 slate was pretty benign as the seven most popular selections (and nine of the top ten) all advanced to Week 2. The prior season was a different story as 4,895 entries (34.3%) all went down in flames with the Bengals vs. the Patriots.
Will Week 1 of the 2026 season contain a big upset like 2024 or leave most of the field smelling like roses like last season? We won’t know for several weeks, but below are our options.
This is the only Week 1 point spread with north of eight points and it’s expected to be the most popular game in most survivor pools.
Between now and the start of the season you’re going to hear a lot about how dominant Chargers’ coach Jim Harbaugh has been in Week 1. Harbaugh is 6-0 including last season’s upset over the Chiefs. With an average margin of victory of 9.2 points per game and no game decided by less than six points, it’s easy to see the appeal for the Chargers.
On the other sideline, the Arizona Cardinals have looked ugly at times in camp and several viral clips are adding fuel to the narrative that they might be the worst team in football.
The biggest argument against taking the Chargers in Week 1 isn’t about them losing, it’s about projections. If 40% of the field ends up on the Chargers you’d love to have them in your pocket Week 2 at home vs. Las Vegas, Week 11 at home vs. the Jets or at Miami Week 16.
If you’re thinking about using the Chargers, a nice added bonus is they don’t play on Thanksgiving or Christmas.
Jacksonville hosts Cleveland in hot and humid conditions and that should be a nice advantage for the home team. The Jaguars are -7.5 point favorites now, but nobody would be shocked to see the Jaguars even bigger favorites by kickoff.
There’s a lot to like for Jacksonville in this spot including a big QB mismatch with Trevor Lawrence vs. either Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders. Lawrence looked reborn last season under genius play caller Liam Coen, but it’s worth noting he’s been mediocre in Week 1 contests. Lawrence has opened the season 2-3 with 8 TD and 6 INTs. Last season Lawrence was 19-for-31 with 1 TD and 1 INT in a 26-10 victory over Carolina.
If you don’t use Jacksonville in Week 1, you’re probably not using them in Weeks 2-7 either (Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, Texans, Bye). The Jaguars do not play on Christmas or Thanksgiving this year.
This seems like a comfortable spot for Detroit, but don’t forget it hosts Chicago on a tough Thanksgiving slate where you might need to get creative.
The Lions opened last season with a stinker. Detroit didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter of its 27-13 loss to the Packers and could only muster 46 yards rushing on the ground. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 2-3 in Week 1 games with one win coming in OT and the other by one point.
The Saints seem to be a polarizing team entering the season with some talking heads thinking they’ll continue to struggle and others seeing potential. New Orleans coach Kellen Moore didn’t have his team ready for Week 1 last season as they dropped a 20-13 game to Arizona, but keep that in perspective because it was his first game as a head coach.
The Saints were 3-6 on the road last year and the Lions were 5-3 at home.
This game presents a massive opportunity for those feeling frisky enough to trust the Raiders at home against Miami. You need to use 20 teams to win Circa Survivor and you’ll be feeling great about yourself if you can get a Week 1 win with Las Vegas. The only other spots to seriously consider the Raiders are on the road — at the Jets (Week 8) or at Cleveland (Week 12) potentially in the snow.
Notice that most of the arguments to use the Raiders in this spot don’t focus on X’s and O’s. Instead it’s a strategic move to use a bad team early, similar to the idea of using the Cardinals in Week 1 last year vs. New Orleans.
Philadelphia stumbled down the stretch last season going 3-4 in its last seven regular season games before losing at home to the 49ers in the playoffs 23-19. Washington stumbled all season going 5-12 with a -95 point differential but that was mostly without QB Jayden Daniels who is expected to make his return. Daniels is 1-1 in Week 1 games with 3 TD (2 rushing) and 0 INTs.
The Eagles have a lot of theoretical future value with games @ Tennessee Week 2, vs. Carolina Week 6, @ Arizona Week 13, and against the Giants in Weeks 9 and 18. Philadelphia also plays on both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Can you really trust Zac Taylor’s Bengals in a Week 1 spot here? Cincinnati has been dreadful in Week 1 games including the aforementioned Week 1 loss to the Patriots in 2024. In fact, Cincinnati is 1-3 in its last four Week 1 games and the one win (last season) was a sweaty 17-16 win over Cleveland.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde last year so keep an eye on how he looks in practice and the preseason. Don’t be surprised to see double digits on the underdog Bucs here in this spot fading Cincinnati.
By all accounts, Colts QB Daniel Jones is looking incredibly strong in training camp and I’m not sure many will want to fade a guy at home who started last season with 13 TD and 3 INTs.
This will be Jesse Minter’s (Baltimore) first regular season game as head coach but it’s worth noting that his defense with the Chargers looked stout in Week 1 the last two years.
In Circa Survivor, you have the option to select a team that plays before Sunday and re-buy back into the contest if that team loses. In other words, you could select both sides of a game and “guarantee” (unless there’s a tie) you’re alive after Week 1 and root for carnage on Sunday. Below are the two early Week 1 games to consider. Keep in mind that the Rams play Seattle on Christmas and also host Green Bay on Thanksgiving.
San Francisco plans to arrive in Australia a week early, while the Rams are opting to arrive the day before the game. Those flight plans seem to favor San Francisco which will likely be without All-Pro tight end George Kittle.
Using the Rams in this spot would hurt you future-value wise because LA plays the Giants in Week 2, the Cardinals in Week 6, and the Raiders in Week 7.
All eyes will be on Mike Vrabel’s Patriots and how they respond to offseason drama involving their head coach and reporter Dianna Russini. This Super Bowl rematch will feature a new toy for New England as AJ Brown joins the team in a trade from Philadelphia.
The most logical spots to use Seattle this season are against Arizona (Weeks 2 & 9) or at the Raiders Week 10.
Titans (-2.5) vs. Jets
Bears (-2.5) at Panthers
Bills (-1.5) vs. Texans
Packers (-1.5) vs. Vikings
Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Giants
Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Broncos
Recent posts
