This past week of the 2025 NFL season will go down as one of the toughest in survivor pool history. During Week 5, 7729 entries have been eliminated from the Circa Survivor contest. Whether or not the last 23 entries of this round survive on the Chiefs tonight, this moment has seriously impacted the landscape. If you're among the casualties, you're in the company of scores of experienced players who were taken down by underdog victories.

Let's break down the big letdowns.

In Thursday night’s defeat of the LA Rams by the San Francisco 49ers, Mac Jones led the charge by throwing for 342 yards in spite of taking a number of heavy hits. Even though the Rams staged a strong comeback to tie it up and spill into overtime, it wasn’t enough as the 49ers nailed a 37 yard FG to win. This meant sadness for 3525 Circa 1K entries (28.4% of field) that had chosen the Rams, the highest-selected team of the week. In Circa Grandissimo, 15 entries had written down the Rams, whittling that field quite a bit as everyone would discover when the selections were released by Circa on Saturday.

On Sunday evening, the Tennessee Titans shocked the Arizona Cardinals by coming back to win 22-21 after being down by 18 at the half. Kyler Murray started strong but his team seemed to collapse before our eyes late in the game. The Titans landed their first W of the season by repeatedly exploiting Arizona’s weak spots through stellar launches by QB Cam Ward and defensive control led by DT Jeffrey Simmons. ​​A final drive sealed the deal and left Arizona fans speechless, along with 3152 Circa 1K entries (25.4% of field) and 20 Grandissimo entries that were counting on them hard.

Later on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills fell to the New England Patriots in another close finish (23-20). Rhamondre Stevenson secured two touchdowns for the Patriots, after emerging from the ashes of an early fumble. Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs were also shining for the Patriots offense. Meanwhile on the Bills side, Josh Allen unexpectedly allowed three turnovers. His team muddled through and staged a moderate comeback to tie at 20-20 in the 4th, however the overtime drive by the Patriots took them to victory. And thus survivor dreams were crushed for 756 Circa 1K entries (6.1% of field) and 4 Grandissimo entries.

Losses by the Seahawks, Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins, Browns, Jets, and Raiders took out additional handfuls of entries. We’ll see if the Jaguars add another upset to the list tonight.

Check out the full picture of these outcomes on Survivor Atlas

Last year’s epic entry burns mostly came from Cincinnati and Baltimore upsets in the first few weeks. Cinci’s loss in Week 1 of 2024 crushed 4895 entries, which was 34.4% of the field, a more impactful hit than any of the upsets so far in 2025.

In 2023, Jacksonville lost to Houston in week 3 which took out 2421 entries, mercilessly slashing 40.9% from the field. These reminders may not ease the pain of today, but they help us add to the data we have on what events may precede survivor earthquakes.
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It’s hard to say this in strong enough terms: the mathematical terrain is shifting drastically in week 5. Expected value per live entry has soared. Getting a feel for the herd is even more crucial. With the upsets of this week, common understandings about certain teams’ potential must be reassessed. A strong look at team availability among the remaining players should be top priority as well.

We’ll be discussing these topics and more in the coming week on the Game Winning Drive podcast and in Thursday's Spaces (via X), so stay tuned.