Losing Week 1 in Circa Survivor, or any NFL Survivor Pool is a major gut punch. The purpose of this article is to equip you with knowledge to help you avoid falling into a Week 1 trap that knocks out a large chunk of bettors in your NFL survivor pool.

I've just completed a deep dive examining all the big Week 1 upsets since Circa Survivor started (2020) in an effort to see if there are any patterns or trends to help us identify a potential landmine in Week 1.

• "Big favorites" are defined in this article as those favored by 5 or more points on the closing line
• Ties lose in Circa Survivor, so when accounting for the infamous 2022 Colts-Texans tie, it's considered a Colts loss in this article even though they technically didn't lose
• All references to records are SU and not ATS
• If you like this article, follow @TheLMSPodcast on X

In 2019, big favorites went 7-1 (with four very slim wins). Circa Survivor launched the following season, and ever since then, big favorites are just 15-12 SU. Below is a recap of how big favorites have performed in Week 1 dating back to 2016.

Week 1 Big Favorites Performance:

• 2016: 5-1
• 2017: 4-2
• 2018: 4-2
• 2019: 7-1
• 2020: 4-3
• 2021: 3-1
• 2022: 4-5
• 2023: 2-2
• 2024: 2-1

It's eye-opening that big favorites are just 8-8 straight up in the last three seasons and worth noting that Buffalo (vs. Arizona) and Seattle (vs. Denver) both barely squeezed by last season so these numbers could have easily been worse.

Below is a list of every big favorite who lost in Week 1 since Circa Survivor started. San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis all share the dubious honor of making this list twice and it's worth noting that the 49ers (Kyle Shanahan) and Bengals (Zac Taylor) still have the same head coaches who lost those games.

This list is highlighted by the carnage in 2022 which saw five (yes, five!) big favorites lose in Week 1. The Saints (8.2% in Circa) were -5.5 point favorites that week and barely beat the Falcons, so again, the carnage could have been even worse.

Complete List of Big Favorite Losses:

2020 Season:

• Eagles (-5.5) lose on the road vs. Commanders, 27-17
• Colts (-8) lose on the road vs. Jaguars, 27-20
• 49ers (-6.5) lose at home vs. Cardinals, 24-20

2021 Season:

• Bills (-6.5) lose at home vs. Steelers, 23-16

2022 Season (The Carnage Year):

• Colts (-7) tie on the road vs. Texans, 20-20
• Titans (-5.5) lose at home vs. Giants, 21-20
• 49ers (-6.5) lose on the road to Bears, 19-10
• Broncos (-6) lose on the road vs. Seahawks, 17-16
• Bengals (-7) lose at home vs. Steelers, 23-20

2023 Season:

• Vikings (-5) lose at home vs. Bucs, 20-17
• Seahawks (-5) lose at home vs. Rams, 30-13

2024 Season:

• Bengals (-8.5) lose at home vs. Patriots, 16-10

💡 Takeaway for 2025: Be skeptical of Zac Taylor's Bengals Week 1

With crowds theoretically being a little more amped up Week 1 for the first game of the season, some bettors might find comfort in home teams. However, recent history suggests home field advantage isn't a protective factor against your big favorite going down in the opening weekend.

Since Circa Survivor started (2020):

• Big HOME favorites: 9-7
• Big ROAD favorites: 6-5

💡 Takeaway for 2025: The Eagles, Commanders, and Broncos are all home in Week 1 and not necessarily safer options than the Cardinals and Bengals just because they're at home.

Big favorites playing opponents outside their division have had a much easier time than those playing vs. Divisional opponents. The familiarity that comes with playing a team twice a year may be a factor here. It's a small sample size, but the numbers below are tough to ignore.

Since Circa Survivor started (2020):

• Divisional big favorites: 4-6
• Non-Divisional big favorites: 11-6

💡 Takeaway for 2025: Perhaps we should be wary of the Commanders (vs. Giants), Bengals (vs. Browns), and Eagles (vs. Dallas) in Week 1.

It's logical to believe that a head coach with more experience is less likely to fall for a trap in Week 1 or have his team unprepared to start the season. However, six of 12 of the big favorites to lose in Week 1 since Circa Survivor started had head coaches with more experience than their opponents. In fact, three rookie head coaches (Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus, and Jerod Mayo) scored upsets while being underdogs of 5+ points.

💡 Takeaway for 2025: Don't fade Dallas (Brian Schottenheimer) or the Saints (Kellen Moore) just because they have rookie head coaches.

Since the NFL switched to three preseason games in 2021, there have been nine big favorites who went down in Week 1. Below are some noteworthy facts about those nine teams:

Key Findings:

• They all had starting QBs who threw 17 or fewer passes in the preseason
• 7 of the 9 teams had starting QBs who threw fewer passes in the preseason than their counterparts (by an average 20.28 less pass attempts)
• 4 of the 9 had starting QBs with zero snaps in the preseason
• 6 of the 9 had starting QBs who had 7 or less pass attempts

QB Preseason Snap Comparison:

2021:

• Josh Allen (26 snaps) ❌ lost to Ben Roethlisberger (10 snaps) ✅

2022:

• Matt Ryan (17 snaps) ❌ lost to Davis Mills (30 snaps) ✅
• Trey Lance (16 snaps) ❌ lost to Justin Fields (27 snaps) ✅
• Russell Wilson (0 snaps) ❌ lost to Geno Smith (39 snaps) ✅
• Joe Burrow (0 snaps) ❌ lost to Mitch Trubisky (31 snaps) ✅

2023:

• Kirk Cousins (0 snaps) ❌ lost to Baker Mayfield (15 snaps) ✅
• Geno Smith (6 snaps) ❌ lost to Matthew Stafford (0 snaps) ✅

2024:

• Joe Burrow (7 snaps) ❌ lost to Jacoby Brissett (14 snaps) ✅

Obviously it's counterintuitive to bet on a team that you expect to have a worse defense than its opponent. However, the data below is begging us to pay attention to something intriguing.

This data illustrates the final season Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) rankings (from FTNFantasy.com) of each team involved in the 12 big favorite losses in the Circa Survivor era. The number before the slash represents that team's OFFENSIVE DVOA ranking and the number after the slash represents its DEFENSIVE DVOA ranking. Of course, at the time these teams played nobody knew what their final DVOA rankings would be for the season, but this gives us a glimpse of these team's strengths and weaknesses.

DVOA Rankings (Offense/Defense):

2020:

• Eagles (29/18) ❌ lost to Commanders (30/31) ✅
• Colts (10/9) ❌ lost to Jaguars (27/30) ✅
• 49ers (21/7) ❌ lost to Cardinals (17/14) ✅

2021:

• Bills (9/1) ❌ lost to Steelers (25/17) ✅

2022:

• Colts (32/17) ❌ lost to Texans (31/28) ✅
• Titans (21/19) ❌ lost to Giants (16/30) ✅
• 49ers (5/1) ❌ lost to Bears (24/32) ✅
• Broncos (28/13) ❌ lost to Seahawks (13/22) ✅
• Bengals (4/7) ❌ lost to Steelers (17/12) ✅

2023:

• Vikings (23/11) ❌ lost to Buccaneers (20/14) ✅
• Seahawks (12/28) ❌ lost to Rams (7/22) ✅

2024:

• Bengals (5/27) ❌ lost to Patriots (30/30) ✅

Key Insights:

• Of the 12 big favorites who lost in Week 1 during the Circa Survivor era, 11 of them played teams with a DVOA defense that ranked worse than its own
• The one exception was the 2023 Seahawks who played a Rams team with a slightly better (28th vs. 22nd) DVOA defense
• Six of the 12 teams that logged upset wins vs. big favorites in Week 1 had offenses that ranked 24th or worse
• Three teams ranked 30th or worse in DVOA offense
• Meanwhile, five big favorites that lost in Week 1 ranked in the top 10 in DVOA offense

💡 Takeaway for 2025: Of course we don't know today how each team will rank in DVOA at the end of the season. But this data might make someone think twice about a team like Washington or Arizona in Week 1. Perhaps those offenses have some cobwebs and it allows the Giants and Saints to overachieve on defense and keep the game tight.

Everyone remembers the big Week 1 upsets, but it's easy to forget about the games that were almost a disaster. Below is a recap of some of the biggest Week 1 sweats for big favorites that turned out okay.

Near-Miss Games:

🏈 2016: Seahawks (-10.5) win at home vs. Dolphins, 12-10

Miami had the ball with 31 seconds left and Tannehill was sacked on back-to-back plays to end it

🏈 2018: Packers (-7.5) win at home vs. Bears, 24-23

Packers outscored the Bears 21-3 in the fourth quarter

🏈 2019: Seahawks (-9.5) win at home vs. Bengals, 21-10

Andy Dalton was sacked and fumbled with 14 seconds left

🏈 2019: Chargers (-6.5) win at home vs. Colts, 30-24 (OT)

Colts scored a TD with :38 left in regulation to force OT

🏈 2019: Saints (-7) win at home vs. Texans, 30-28

Texans went up 28-27 with 37 seconds left

🏈 2022: Saints (-5.5) win on road vs. Falcons, 27-26

Saints trailed 26-10 in the second half

🏈 2024: Bills (-6.5) win vs. Cardinals, 34-28

Cardinals led 20-7 at halftime

🏈 2024: Seahawks (-6) win vs. Broncos, 26-20

Broncos led 13-9 at halftime

Week 1 is about avoiding traps, not chasing comfort. History shows no favorite is safe, so the edge comes from spotting where others might stumble and making choices that keep you positioned to win the entire pool.